Russians have begun their spring offensive, and the casualty numbers are staggering.

Over the past few days, losses have surged to levels we haven’t seen in years. Wave after wave of assaults, dozens of times a day, with huge numbers of troops being sent forward and taken out, most of them by Ukrainian drones and long-range strikes.

At the same time, something strange is happening inside Russia. A kind of shutdown, almost North Korea style, with information tightening and the system closing in on itself.

On the surface, it looks disastrous for the Kremlin.

But zoom out, and the picture gets more complicated. With rising tensions in the Middle East, oil prices climbing, and the prospect of sanctions shifting under Trump, Russia could be about to make serious money.

So who’s actually winning here?

I spoke to my friend and Russia expert Hamish De Bretton-Gordon to break it all down.

This is just a quick snapshot of the last week.